Overseas macro factors are mixed, and aluminum futures remain in the doldrums during the day [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Comment]

Published: Jul 4, 2025 17:24

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》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis

SMM July 4:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2508 contract opened at 20,650 yuan/mt, peaked at 20,695 yuan/mt, bottomed at 20,590 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,635 yuan/mt, down 0.07% with 70,400 lots traded and 272,000 lots in open interest.

SMM Commentary: On the macro front, China's supportive policies continue to strengthen with unchanged focus on boosting consumption; overseas macro factors remain mixed with lingering risks. Fundamentally, some regions saw increased casting ingot production at aluminum smelters. Coupled with weak off-season demand and fear of high prices, market transactions remained sluggish. Aluminum ingot inventory recorded a minor buildup while spot premiums/discounts weakened significantly. Short-term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at highs. Close monitoring of casting ingot volumes and inventory changes is warranted.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 3,041 yuan/mt, peaked at 3,057 yuan/mt, bottomed at 3,019 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,024 yuan/mt, down 0.53% with 131,000 lots traded and 268,000 lots in open interest.

SMM Commentary: This week, alumina operating capacity declined by 340,000 mt/year to 88.63 million mt/year. In the near term, alumina operating capacity is expected to remain elevated with only sporadic routine maintenance at some facilities. Spot market supply stays relatively loose, exerting downward pressure on spot alumina prices. However, recent alumina futures rally has brought arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot markets near activation threshold, with traders showing active inquiries. Spot cargo availability temporarily tightened as suppliers raised quotes. Short-term spot alumina prices may see marginal rebounds, though future trends depend on supply-demand fundamentals, futures price movements, and delivery warehouse transfer demands.Z7/>[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not rely solely on this information. Any decisions made by clients are independent of SMM.]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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